Super Tuesday has come and gone. Donald Trump slightly underperformed expectations, but winning 7 states is a nice way to underperform. Ted Cruz had a nice night, with a solid with in Texas and two impressive wins in Oklahoma and Alaska. Rubio is injured, but survived what was always going to be his hard night. It was an important narrative victory for him winning Minnesota.
On the Democratic race, I am calling this race over. At worst Hillary can great out a win, and best she will rout this one over.
The Louisiana Primary
Louisiana is a closed primary. This is important because you have to be a registered Republican in order to vote in it. The last two cycles, the evangelical candidate won this primary. These things together bode very well for Ted Cruz. Cruz of course won Texas and Oklahoma and did a great job getting a very close second in Arkansas.
There are two major advantages for Trump in Louisiana. For one it is in the Deep South, which is the region where Trump has done the best in. Also, Trump has done very well with low education voters, of which Louisiana certainly fits that mold. If someone wants to know the American politician who is closest to Trump historically, look up Huey Long. Long was from Louisiana.
For Rubio, Louisiana is just a terrible fit. Rubio does best with suburban higher educated voters, not a strength here. His one big advantage is that it is a closed primary, and Rubio is the man of the establishment.
My Prediction- Cruz 37% Trump 34% Rubio 22% Kasich 3%
Delegates (Proportional)- Cruz 19 Trump 17 Rubio 10
The Kansas Caucus
The Kansas Caucus is a closed caucus, and really will only draw in the party faithful. I would think of it as a hybrid of the Iowa caucus and the Minnesota caucus. Huckabee dominated the Kansas caucus in 2008 and Santorum dominated in 2012. Kansas is one of the most pro-life states in the nation. Trump has been underperforming in the Midwest. I think this could very well be a distant third for Trump.
Cruz is the favorite in the betting markets for Kansas. I am not so sure he is the winner. I think Rubio will pull this one out because Kansas is a bit more urban that Kansas. It is very similar to Minnesota in my mind. I would not be surprised if Cruz wins Kansas, but I am picking Rubio
My Prediction- Rubio 35% Cruz 33% Trump 21% Kasich 8%
Delegates (Proportional)- Rubio 16 Cruz 15 Trump 9
The Kentucky Caucus
Kentucky a great poor, low-information state for Trump. It also has a large cultural evangelical base that Trump does well with. It is a state known to have a higher percentage of racist tendencies, and it is a state with few urban voters. The only thing really going against Trump is that Kentucky is a closed caucus state, meaning that many of the non-traditional Trump supporters will not be able to infuse the vote while not being in the party.
Cruz has an advantage of Kentucky being a very conservative state. Rubio biggest help is probably the influence Mitch McConnell has there, who has not endorsed him but seems to be leaning his way. Nevertheless, I don’t think this means much
My Prediction- Trump 42% Cruz 25% Rubio 22% Kasich 5%
Delegates- Trump 19 Cruz 12 Rubio 10 Kasich 2
Fun fact: Who won the 2012 Maine Caucus? Mitt Romney, but only by 1% over Ron Paul. I don’t think of Maine as a rural state, but it is the least urban state in the country at only 39%. No public polls for Maine have come out since 2013.
Maine seems to be a state that will run well for Trump and Kasich. I don’t think a Kasich win is out of the question here. He had that narrow miss on Super Tuesday in Vermont. His strength has been the northeast. The downside for him is with less states voting, he has less of an opportunity to fly under the radar.
Rubio should have some appeal, but I think his attacking Trump of late helps Kasich more as looking as the adult in the room. Cruz big advantage is that he is the most Rand Paul like, but really that isn’t worth much
My Prediction- Kasich 30% Trump 28% Rubio 22% Cruz 17%
Delegates- Kasich 8 Trump 6 Rubio 5 Cruz 4
This would be a fun result if it happened, 4 states, 4 winners. Despite my predictions, my guess is that Trump ends up winning 2 of these, b/c I think Trump is very close with Kasich in Maine and Cruz in Louisiana, thus winning 1 of these along with Kentucky.
There are 155 delegates up on Saturday March 5th. I have it combined: Trump 51 Cruz 50 Rubio 41 Kasich 10. If this is the case, it keeps us marching to a brokered convention. The question is should Trump focus on winning Florida and Ohio, which if he does it is game over, or should he fight all these smaller battles. Will be interesting to watch.